I went 4-5-2 last week against the spread. The Good: nailing my Upset Special with Michigan State beating Northwestern. The Bad: predicting that Indiana would keep it close with Iowa. The Ugly: saying UNC wouldn’t have much trouble with Virginia Tech.
Here are this week’s guesses.
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No. 12 Oregon (+14.5) at No. 3 Ohio State, Noon (Fox)
The Ducks had their hands full with Fresno State, but I think Oregon offensive coordinator Joe Moorhead has some stuff ready to spring on a Buckeyes defense that was really shaky last season and again last week against a Minnesota team with less speed than Oregon. The problem is, I don’t see anyone in the regular season shutting down that Ohio State offense. Ohio State 38, Oregon 27
Pick:Oregon (+14.5)
No. 5 Texas A&M (-17) vs. Colorado in Denver, 3:30 p.m. (Fox)
After the way Texas hammered Colorado in the bowl game, expect the Aggies, who have better defensive personnel, to do something similar. Texas A&M 35, Colorado 14
Pick:Texas A&M (-17)
No. 10 Iowa (+4.5) at No. 9 Iowa State, 4:30 p.m. (ABC)
Even though the road team has had a lot of success in this one for the past decade, I’m not bailing off the ISU bandwagon so fast. I’m so tempted to go with Iowa though, especially after seeing that Breece Hall has been much better on the road than at home and that Spencer Petras last year was too. Both of those things are really having me second-guess this one, but … I’ll stay with my hunch. Iowa State 28, Iowa 27
Pick:Iowa (+4.5)
Appalachian State (+8.5)at No. 22 Miami, 7 p.m. (ESPNU)
How much hangover will there be for UM after getting smashed by Alabama? I toyed with the idea of making this my upset special but I think D’Eriq King will bounce back and led the Canes to a tight win against a good ASU team. Miami 31, Appalachian State 24
Pick:Appalachian State (+8.5)
No. 15 Texas (-7) at Arkansas, 7 p.m. (ESPN)
I’m surprised this spread was as close as it was. The Hogs handled Rice last week but this Texas team has a lot more firepower, led by star running back Bijan Robinson, and I’m not sure Arkansas, which has had all sorts of problems against the run the past couple of years, will be able to slow him down. Texas 27, Arkansas 17
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Pick:Texas (-7)
Missouri at Kentucky (-5), 7:30 p.m. (SEC Network)
Liam Coen has sparked a new day at UK with a legit passing attack led by Will Levis and that should be too much for a Tigers team that gave up over 300 yards passing to CMU last week. Kentucky 35, Mizzou 24
Pick:Kentucky (-5)
NC State (-3) at Mississippi State , 7 p.m. (ESPN2)
This is a very underrated NC State team that is physical on both sides of the ball and should be able to contain the Air Raid, which barely survived against La. Tech last week. NC State 27, Mississippi State 21
Pick:NC State (-3)
Washington at Michigan (-7), 8 p.m. (ABC)
The Huskies looked dreadful last week and now they have to travel to Big Ten country to face a Michigan team that had an impressive debut. The hunch is that Washington will play better this week, but Jim Harbaugh’s team will do enough to go to 2-0. Michigan 24, Washington 14
Pick:Michigan (-7)
No. 21 Utah (-7) at BYU, 10:15 p.m. (ESPN)
This is a terrific rivalry. The Utes have won nine in a row and this is such an experienced, physical team, I don’t see the Cougars breaking that streak. Utah 20, BYU 10
Pick:Utah (-7)
Stanford (+17) at No. 14 USC, 10:30 p.m. (Fox)
It was a dismal showing by Stanford last week against K-State. The hunch is they’ll be a little crisper on offense and will hang around for a while. USC 28, Stanford 17
Pick:Stanford (+17)
Upset Special: Vanderbilt (+6.5) at Colorado State, 10 p.m. (CBS Sports Network)
You know you made a bad first impression when your team goes from a one-point underdog to a seven-point dog after your upcoming opponent gets blown out by an FCS team at home. CSU does have a good tight end in Trey McBride, but for as horrific as Vanderbilt was in Clark Lea’s debut, I’m convinced (kind of) that the Commodores will look a lot better the second time out as play caller Joey Lynch faces his old school. Vanderbilt 23, Colorado State 21
(Note: Odds and point spreads are constantly changing. These are the spreads at time of writing and will not be updated. Click here for live odds. All times Eastern.)
(Top photo: Andy Lyons / Getty; The Athletic may receive an affiliate commission if you open an account with BetMGM through links contained in the above article.)
Bruce Feldman is the National College Football Insider for The Athletic. One of the sport’s leading voices, he also is a sideline reporter for FOX College Football. Bruce has covered college football nationally for more than 20 years and is the author of numerous books on the topic, including "Swing Your Sword: Leading The Charge in Football and Life" with Mike Leach and most recently "The QB: The Making of Modern Quarterbacks." Follow Bruce on Twitter @BruceFeldmanCFB
