Futures Watch: Rangers to win the Stanley Cup and more cross sport values (2024)

Let’s review some of the favorite futures bets placed recently in baseball, the NHL and the NFL by BetPrep’s professional bettor Brad Feinberg, co-host of the Givin Futures podcast.

We’ll start in baseball.

Dylan Cease 80/1 to lead MLB in wins

Feinberg: When I placed this bet, Cease had two wins. He pitched Thursday. We know the talent is there. We know that this is the guy who last year had a lot of success. I think the White Sox will end up scoring a boatload of runs – this team is really good. Last year, he had 226 Ks in 165 innings; so he’s dominant. He didn’t miss a start; so I like the durability. These two free wins at 80/1 could be the difference in winning this bet and losing this bet. Now you have to shop for that number. It’s going to be lower, especially if he goes to 3-0. But the same thing applies. I figure the O/U on the MLB leader in wins is 18.5 wins. He has 29 starts left after Thursday. So just work from there — what is the probability of this pitcher with this team and bullpen and this offense getting to 18.5, given his start to the season, as of Friday? We know it’s not 80/1. At 3-0, I would take 40/1. If he stays at two wins, I need 60/1 for this bet given that it’s SO hard to win it.

Trea Turner 20/1 to win the NL MVP

Feinberg: I know it’s a crowded field — not just in the league, but even on the team, given they have three guys who have been MVPs. Turner is a great player. He led the league in batting average, which is still a big deal, and he could obviously do it again. Look, a thing here, seriously, is that he was the No. 1 player in fantasy by consensus. He’s at the game’s premium defensive position. I think 20/1 is a bad number; his odds shouldn’t be that high. He could lead the NL in average, runs, steals without stretching the imagination too far. Even if he’s close to the leader in all three, he’s probably at least a finalist, and then you can lay off from there (by betting the other two finalists). And he has pop, too. He was the first shortstop last year to reach 10 homers (in his 37th game), not Fernando Tatis Jr. It was Turner. So Turner could hit 25-to-30 homers, too. These are all winning numbers.

Moving to hockey, Brad thinks the Rangers’ Igor Shesterkin is a sure thing to win the NHL’s Vezina Trophy for the league’s best goalie and he was able to get -665 odds for them to basically hold his money

Feinberg: Now this was before his most recent shutout. He’d have to give up about five goals a game to even have a chance to lose this award and it’s not happening. Odds like this are the bread and butter of the professional gambler. I’m getting 17% return for someone to hold my money for a month or so. That’s great. Multiply that by 12 months for an annualized rate. Whatever odds you get – and I bet it heavily so I made the odds less profitable where I bet – it’s a lock that he wins. I did this with Trevor Lawrence to be the first pick last year. That was a lock when they were still paying you something. I did it with Aaron Rodgers to win the MVP. These were sure things. So is Shesterkin to win the Vezina.

You also like the Rangers at 18/1 to win the Stanley Cup for the first time since 1994

Feinberg: They play in an easier division than Tampa, Florida and Toronto. And their record is deceiving – Shesterkin will play every playoff game and when he plays their record is as good as any team in the NHL. The Rangers are 36-11-4 when he plays. That’s 76 points in 52 games, or a 120-point pace for a full season. I’m not sure there is a bigger difference in hockey between a starting goalie and his backup than what exists with the Rangers. This is not a factor at all in the postseason.

Two football futures. One is your favorite bet of the year: the Vikings +325 to win the NFC North

Feinberg: Love this bet. This is just me being an amateur psychiatrist. I think they were in a bad marriage. And what I mean by that is I think this team was done with Mike Zimmer, who I want to be clear is not a bad coach. Now let’s look at this division. I think the Bears are the worst team in the NFL – I will pick them to finish with the fewest wins. The Lions are scrappy, but they’re bad. So it’s just a two-team division. Now let’s just look at what happened in Green Bay. Sammy Watkins? Allen Lazard? That’s not going to replace Davante Adams. Green Bay also loses their most effective defensive player in 2020, Za’Darius Smith, and they lose him to the Vikings. Kirk Cousins is so much better than people give him credit for. Ask a somewhat serious NFL fan what Cousins is in TDs/INTs and they’ll never guess that he’s a poor man’s Rodgers there (33/7 last year). People talk like Cousins is garbage. I don’t get it. And look at the skill talent on the offense – maybe the best wide receiver. Maybe the best running back. And you’re saying they have a 22% chance to win — like they need a miracle like Rodgers being out or something? I don’t think they need a miracle. I think they’re a legit team. They need the defense to finish top 10, top 12 – that happens almost randomly year-to-year.

You talk about pizza bets – a little bit of money for a big return. And you like Javonte Williams 40/1 to win the NFL rushing title

Feinberg: Well it’s a lot more than a pizza for me. That would be a pretty big pizza! But these odds are too big. They should be 20/1. The Broncos are expected to win 10 or 11 games, which is obviously good for the running back. They have a good defense it seems. Russell Wilson is still a running threat on read options so that should boost his yards per carry. It looks like Melvin Gordon is not coming back, but if that goes sideways and he does, I am OUT of this bet. And Williams is a really good player who ran well last year and broke tackles and rated well in the advanced stats, too. Now remember, with bets like these, you are probably going to lose. But when the odds are bad, you just keep betting them because the payout is so good. I expect to win a bet like this one out of 20 times but they’re paying me like my true odds are 40/1.

(Top photo: Joe Sargent/NHLI via Getty Images; Table stats via Baseball-Reference)

Michael Salfino writes about fantasy sports for The Athletic. His numbers-driven fantasy analysis began with a nationally syndicated newspaper column in 2004. He now covers a variety of sports for FiveThirtyEight and The Wall Street Journal, for whom he also writes about movies. Michael helped Cade Massey of the Wharton School of Business originate an NFL prediction model https://massey-peabody.com that understands context and chance and avoids the trap of overconfidence. He strives to do the same when projecting player performance. Follow Michael on Twitter @MichaelSalfino